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R.I.P. Big Transmission, We Hardly Knew Ye

6/2/2016

1 Comment

 
I'm late for the funeral!  Ran across this article yesterday when searching for something totally unrelated, but it speaks so much truth, I couldn't dismiss it.  Back in September of last year, utility rag Fortnightly ran an article headlined, "The Rise and Fall of Big Transmission:  The alternatives may make more sense."  Author Steve Huntoon chronicles the big transmission building phase that was created by Congressional action to provide incredible financial incentives for Big Transmission.  In the Energy Policy Act of 2005, Congress tasked the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission with creating a system to award incentives to transmission builders, such as double digit returns, the ability to collect project costs in rates during construction, guaranteed recovery in the event a Big Transmission project was abandoned, and many more (I'm not going to list them all here because only utility rate geeks would understand them all without lengthy explanation).  Creating incentives to build more transmission was a Congressional knee-jerk to the 2003 northeast blackout.  Nevermind that a complicated, expansive transmission system was to blame for the blackout, industry lobbyists spun the blackout its clients created through mismanagement into a huge financial windfall.  And the Big Transmission building boom began.

Huntoon walks the reader through the bad ideas that sprang from utility greed, analyzes why many of them failed, and applies his analysis to the remaining Big Transmission bad ideas to demonstrate why they, too, must fail.

And he does it in an entertaining and easily understood fashion.  Big Transmission becomes a proper noun, a name for an entity that took on a life of its own for a brief period in utility history.  But, in the end, Big Transmission had to die.
Picture
The author explains six points that make Big Transmission fail:
Big Transmission never did and never will make sense. Let’s look at a half-dozen reasons why: 1) the laws of physics, 2) higher reliability risk, 3) stricter contingency limits, 4) lumpiness and investment risk, 5) rigidity of source and sink, and 6) better alternatives.
 Concise explanation of each point is in the article, so I won't belabor them here.

But the purist in me simply can't overlook a couple of glaring errors.  First, the Figure 2 national transmission overlay map is mislabeled.  Existing and New 765kV transmission have their colors reversed.  The Existing 765 system is red on the map, and the New 765 system is green (the legend in the upper right is incorrect).  It makes a great, big difference when studying the map to figure out which lines are new Big Transmission and which lines are incremental existing builds.  Second, the author places the PATH project on the wrong line in the Figure 1 Project Mountaineer Map.  He says, "PATH was essentially the western half of the #2 project in the overall Project Mountaineer plan."  No, PATH was the western half of the #3 project in the Project Mountaineer map.  PJM's original Project Mountaineer called for a Big Transmission line from the John Amos power station to the Deans substation in New Jersey.  PJM combined several proposals into the Frankenstein monster that became PATH, and then cut it off at Kemptown, with plans to build a separate Big Transmission project from Kemptown to Deans at a later date.

But, other than those two mapping boo-boos, the article gets the demise of the PATH project exactly right.  The demise of PATH has been wrongly portrayed by many people, with claims covering everything from reduced demand to coal plant retirements.  In his note 29, the author correctly notes that the demise of PATH was a combination of factors:
It is difficult to apportion the demise of PATH among reduced load growth, the Mt. Storm-Doubs alternative, new generation, and sophisticated statelevel opposition. However, it is fair to observe that reduced load growth had only postponed PATH in the past (three times). What was different in 2010 was the emergence of the Mt. Storm-Doubs  alternative, and the focus of a state regulator on that alternative.
That's right... every factor, except Mt. Storm-Doubs, simply delayed the PATH project.  Mt. Storm-Doubs, and the "sophisticated statelevel opposition's" overwhelming support of this alternative to change the political climate supporting the PATH project, is what killed PATH.  Better, cheaper alternative that the people support?  It's the winning PATH of least resistance!

The realities of the "need" for PATH, and its opposition, merely delayed the project long enough for Dominion Virginia Power to step onto the stage with its proposed rebuild.  But even that wasn't simply about a better idea... the Mt. Storm Doubs line's existing towers were built out of a certain kind of steel that had not stood the test of time.  The tower bases were deteriorating and patchwork fixes were no longer effective.  The towers needed to be replaced before they started falling down.  And while they were replacing the towers, everything else got an upgrade that increased the line's thermal capacity 65% (allowing it to carry more power).  Dominion smartly took advantage of the PATH debacle to get its line rebuilt with minimal opposition, and even the outright support of affected landowners.

Would this situation repeat itself to kill other Big Transmission proposals?  Probably not.  But it does support the idea that incremental transmission projects and rebuilds are much easier to build than Big Transmission.  So, why does the utility industry continue to propose and/or support Big Transmission?  Because it comes with Big Profits and they're willing to risk protracted planning and permitting processes in order to increase their profits.  It's not about building reliability, economic benefits for consumers, or even "cleaner" power...  and all the risk of Big Transmission ends up on the backs of consumers.  What's not to like for them?  The facts in this article -- Big Transmission must fail.

There's even some hard truth about the last of the Big Transmission projects that have yet to realize they're dead.  Clean Line Energy came up with its idea to build thousands of miles of Big Transmission to ship renewables from coast to coast in 2009, when Big Transmission was in its heyday.  But, unlike utility proposals where risk and cost is shouldered by ratepayers, Clean Line has spent millions of dollars of private investment cash to keep its idea alive.  Once Clean Line gives up, its investors lose everything.  There is no federal guarantee to recover sunk costs on speculative, market based Big Transmission.  And Clean Line, itself, will die along with its projects, and its executives currently living high on the hog of private investor cash, will be in the unemployment line.  This is what keeps Clean Line on life support long after it's been pronounced brain dead.  And here's why Clean Line will never happen:
But certainly when Big Transmission is dependent upon market conditions the lumpiness and risk factors are all the more daunting. Big Transmission somehow needs to bring together generation resources and market demand – to the exclusion of alternatives – to forge a level of commitment that will last for many years. That’s a prerequisite for financing. So the entities at each end need to perceive such a compelling business proposition that they will forego other alternatives and cast their fate with Big Transmission. That’s a tough sell.

FERC requires that utilities interconnect all new generation. So a new generator is assured of being able to interconnect its project to the utility serving the territory it is located in; the issue is solely how much money and time it will take for the interconnection. Given this legally assured ability to access the grid through the resident utility, market-based Big Transmission is effectively competing with that utility and thus must offer substantial value added.
And there is no value added by a Clean Line.  Clean Line stupidly demonstrated just this point to the City of Hannibal, Missouri, earlier this year with its chart of wind options for the city.  The Clean Line prepared (and tweaked) chart showed that wind delivered over the existing incremental transmission system was just as cheap as wind delivered over a "clean" line.

Why would any company buy capacity from a risky new transmission line when existing lines are just as cheap?  This probably explains why Clean Line has no customers.  And without customers, Clean Line's Big Transmission will also fail.
1 Comment

And the History Book Says...

11/2/2014

9 Comments

 
It's been a long time since I last got a google news alert for "Potomac-Appalachian Transmission Highline."  So long, in fact, I'd forgotten I even had those search terms set to notify.  But, just in time for Halloween, the PATH zombie reared its ugly head and I got a notice last week that some right-wing think tank had published a paper where those terms were mentioned, America’s Electricity Grid: Outdated or Underrated?
And what did the author have to say about PATH, more than three years after its death?  How has history treated this stunningly costly failure of "independent" planning?
Despite identification of areas in which transmission capacity is limited, a “not in my backyard” (or anyone else’s, in some cases) attitude toward new transmission line siting has resulted in cancellation or delay of some new transmission lines.

For example, in 2011, PJM cancelled the proposed Potomac Appalachian Transmission Highline (PATH) project, a 275-mile transmission line that would have run through West Virginia, Virginia, and Maryland to deliver electricity into Northern Virginia. Although the line was designed to improve reliability in eastern PJM, changing forecasts of electricity demand growth and intense opposition to siting the line led to the project’s cancellation.
It's the opposition that will be remembered, not individual analyses and the fine line that supposedly determined this white elephant was needed.

Hey, remember this?  PATH's talking heads insisted that opposition had nothing to do with PATH's cancellation.

But, history says it did.

While the article's conclusions are pretty screwed up, it does a nice job explaining the bulk power system and federal regulation thereof.  It's a good "backgrounder" for folks new to the transmission world.  Think about how much more reliable our system would be though, if we brought back the "islands" of the past and operated them as smaller parts of the bigger system (aka "microgrids").
Beginning in the late 1920s, electric utilities began to integrate their operations to improve reliability and reduce costs. Previously, utilities had operated as “islands,” meeting the demand for electricity solely from their own generating plants. To ensure reliable service, this meant building extra generating capacity to keep in reserve, in case unexpected problems caused their plants to shut down.[2] By integrating their operations, utilities could provide more reliable service without building as much backup generating capacity. In essence, if a generating plant at Utility A suffered a forced outage, one of Utility B’s generators would be available to ensure the lights stayed on. The concept is similar to diversifying a financial portfolio. Instead of investing everything into just one company’s stock, buying multiple stocks, bonds, and other investments reduces the risk of a sudden financial loss.
Microgrids that can be islanded from the larger system at times when the larger system fails (remember Superstorm Sandy?) can continue to provide power for necessary services.  And if microgrid "A" suffers a forced outage, it can borrow from microgrid "B", or "C," or "D," or any other nearby microgrid.  Relying on just a handful of generators and long-distance transmission lines creates parasitic load pockets with no native generation.  Those folks have nowhere to turn in case of emergency.

Building more transmission lines isn't the answer.  The answer is a more democratic electric grid system that benefits consumers and local communities, not gigantic, investor-owned utility holding companies.
9 Comments

Yes, In Your Back Yard!

5/15/2014

0 Comments

 
From the "better idea than PATH" files:

An independent company has received state approval to build a 750-MW natural gas fired electrical plant in Loudoun County, Virginia.  The plant is expected to help fuel Northern Virginia's many energy hog data centers.
Virginia regulators have approved construction of Panda Power's proposed 750-MW Stonewall natural gas-fired plant to be located south of Leesburg.

The project was strategically sited in one of the fastest-growing counties in the US, Panda said. The region is home to the Dulles Technology Corridor, a national hub for data storage, defense and technology companies. Dominion, the utility serving the region, said recently that demand from the facilities is expected to reach 1,000 MW annually in 2017.

The project would reduce Virginia's reliance on imported power to fill the gap between in-state production and load growth, Panda said.
0 Comments

FirstEnergy Takes Credit for Dominion Transmission Project

4/11/2014

0 Comments

 
After two years of Dominion refusing to do any publicity on its Mt. Storm - Doubs transmission line rebuild, rival FirstEnergy has swooped in to take all the credit for the project.

Cue the irony.
While Dominion has been doing a great job with directly affected landowners, the company has completely failed to disseminate any information about its project to the greater community.  As if folks don't notice the access roads, the helicopters, the construction traffic, the road closures, the implosive splicing...  I've gotten mighty tired of having to reassure people that this is not the PATH project, that this is a permitted activity, and that the world is not exploding.  But I do it, not for Dominion, but for the people who are the victims of Dominion's "secret" rebuild project.

Mt. Storm - Doubs (MSD) is a smarter, better solution than building the PATH project ever was.  So, let's get 'er done, fellas,  so that I can stop having this distraction sitting on the edge of a rather full plate
.

The MSD transmission line begins in Mt. Storm, West Virginia
and ends at the Doubs substation in Frederick County, Maryland.  The 96 miles of the line located in West Virginia and Virginia are owned by Dominion.  The last 3 miles of the line in Maryland are owned by FirstEnergy.  Each company is responsible for permitting and constructing its own segment of this project.  Dominion has been working on its portion of the project for more than 4 years.  FirstEnergy only recently got off it's corporate ass to do its part on the last three miles.

Well, yay, FirstEnergy!  You da man!  Fourteen transmission towers and 3 miles of line? 
Awesome!  Put Toad Meyers in a hardhat and push the "on" button.  That should ameliorate your billing and meter reading fiasco, right?

Wrong.

Back in 2010, while the PATH was still madly attempting to get it's 300 mile, 765kV transmission line sited and permitted
on new right of way, Dominion dropped a bombshell on transmission planner PJM Interconnection.  Dominion proposed several alternatives to the PATH project (which was never actually "needed").  One of the alternatives involved rebuilding MSD because of deteriorating towers.  A rebuilt and modernized MSD would increase the thermal capacity of the existing line 66% and make the addition of PATH's capacity unnecessary.  Both PJM and PATH partners FirstEnergy and AEP tried to deny the proposal and insist that PATH was still necessary.   That was the beginning of the end for PATH.  The Virginia SCC got mighty suspicious and ordered PJM to re-run some data on the necessity for PATH if MSD was rebuilt.  Low and behold, the data showed that there really wasn't a need for PATH after all and PJM suspended (and later cancelled) the PATH project.  PATH withdrew all its project applications and went into hiding, after wasting a quarter billion dollars of consumer funding on the project.

Ahhh... good times!  :-)

Now FirstEnergy says "look at me!" and give me credit for modernizing the electric grid.

Kind of makes you wish that someone would drop a load of insulators on Toad's hard hat, doesn't it?


Oh, what would I do if I didn't have this little outlet...

0 Comments

Dominion Hopes to Discover Lost City of Gold While Upgrading Transmission Line

3/20/2014

0 Comments

 
Reports of mysterious explosions in the vicinity of Dominion Power's Mt. Storm - Doubs transmission line in Jefferson County, West Virginia, continue to upset local residents.

Rumors have begun circulating that Dominion's transmission rebuild project is actually only a front for a different, more sinister company objective recently initiated to help tide Dominion over during this period of ultra-low capacity prices in PJM.

The scuttlebutt is that Dominion's blasting is part of a company expedition to locate El Dorado, the mythical "lost city of gold."

Community notice before blasting could garner too many nosey neighbors that might try to lay claim to Dominion's hoped-for treasure, therefore, residents should remain in their homes and expect random explosions to continue to rock their world, and clear shelves of fragile items, until PJM's markets recover.
0 Comments

A Zacks Valentine to Electric Utilities

2/15/2014

0 Comments

 
Zacks Investment Research sent a love note to our favorite transmission-dependent electric utilities on Valentine's Day.

In a commentary about the utilities sector, Zacks advised transmission lovers that they're about to become obsolete:
The emergence of Microgrids for power generation could threaten the dominance of the age-old power distribution system in the U.S. Microgrids have evolved from simple power backup systems to small smart grids. The swift and cost effective installation of Micro grids could help distribute electricity among the masses. These rooftop solar systems meet the energy needs of the customers. In addition, the customers are allowed to sell excess power back to the utilities.
A report from American Society of Civil Engineers estimated that utilities need to spend $763 billion by 2040 to properly modernize and harden the existing grids against natural disasters. We believe that rather than going for a very costly maintenance, it will be economical to develop these Microgrids, which could lend support to the existing system.
That's right, instead of building more transmission it will be more economical to develop more secure microgrids.

A microgrid is defined as:
A microgrid is a localized grouping of electricity generation, energy storage, and loads that normally operates connected to a traditional centralized grid (macrogrid). This single point of common coupling with the macrogrid can be disconnected. The microgrid can then function autonomously. Generation and loads in a microgrid are usually interconnected at low voltage. From the point of view of the grid operator, a connected microgrid can be controlled as if it were one entity.
Microgrid generation resources can include fuel cells, wind, solar, or other energy sources. The multiple dispersed generation sources and ability to isolate the microgrid from a larger network would provide highly reliable electric power. Produced heat from generation sources such as microturbines could be used for local process heating or space heating, allowing flexible trade off between the needs for heat and electric power.
Wow!  What a great idea, right?

Just one more warning shot across the investor owned electric utility bow.  Transmission is a dead end.  Save yourself, utility friends!  After all, if my favorite utilities die, who am I going to pick on in my spare time?
0 Comments

Frederick County Asks Potomac Edison to Donate Maryland PATH Substation Site

1/14/2014

5 Comments

 
WFMD reports:
Frederick County Commissioner Billy Shreve is asking Potomac Edison to donate some land for a park; specifically, the 150-acre Browning Farm, where the utility was planning to build a substation for the Potomac Appalachian Transmission Highline.

He called it a win-win for First Energy and county citizens.
Frederick County citizens commenting on the article agree.  Potomac Edison has a lot of public image issues in Maryland right now stemming from the Maryland PSC's investigation of its billing and meter reading practices.

What do you think about the county's proposal?
5 Comments

PATH Failure Goes International

11/19/2013

2 Comments

 
Patience and I met two very delightful new friends today.  Hyosil Kim, a reporter for Korean newspaper The Hankyoreh, and her translator Brian Kim, spent the day with us touring Jefferson County and learning about PATH's spectacular, flaming failure to get its transmission project sited and permitted.

PATH's failure is interesting to the people of South Korea because they are engaged in their own furious battle with transmission developer Kepco over a 765kV line intended to export nuclear power out of the country.

The concept of social justice is being debated in Korea, just as it is here.  Why should any person have to sacrifice their home and well-being to serve the energy or environmental needs of others?

We took a fond trip down memory lane with many of our fellow PATH opponents during our tour of PATH's proposed route, recalling funny and touching moments during our successful David v. Goliath struggle to take control of our own energy future.

You'll be happy to know that the story of The Coalition for Reliable Power is just as funny when translated into Korean!


The message Hyosil will take back to Korea is encouragement for the people to persevere and refuse to give up!

We'll be posting a link to Hyosil's story here when it's written...
2 Comments

FERC Chairman Says Interconnected Grid is "Risky"

9/14/2013

0 Comments

 
FERC Chairman Jon Wellinghoff recently told folks at an energy forum:

"So we need to do what we can to minimize those vulnerabilities by ensuring that we can isolate portions of each one of those interconnects," he said, adding that "there are physical security issues that certainly have to be dealt with. I think the biggest risk is potentially attacks on the system at those critical nodes."

What Wellinghoff describes is already being accomplished on a smaller scale with distributed generation and microgrids that can be islanded in the event of an emergency.

Smaller systems increase reliability because their flexibility allows them to continue to function when separated from the larger system.  This is because a microgrid is a complete and functional electric generation and distribution system that can stand alone.  It's a "mini-grid."

Microgrids can be connected to each other, as well as to the larger, centralized grid, however they may also be disconnected in event of emergency to prevent centralized problems from affecting their operation.

Our traditional centralized generation system for electricity relies entirely on the transmission/distribution system to function.  Any faults in the T&D system cause blackouts for end users because the fault causes this system to lose its generation component and become incapable of generating electricity for the end users.

Increased reliance on long haul transmission lines to distribute renewable energy thousands of miles from point of generation to point of use increases the risk of failure for end users.  The most reliable system is one where generation of electricity occurs as close to the point of use as possible.  Less wire, less risk of failure.

So while Wellinghoff's reasoning is sound, his application is short-sighted because it doesn't look beyond the traditional centralized generation grid.
0 Comments

Demand Denial

9/25/2012

1 Comment

 
Is the utility industry finally starting to admit that weak demand isn't strictly a product of the economy that will bounce back very soon?

The utilities have been telling their investors that demand is about to skyrocket at any second, although just recently a few of them have been pondering whether slow load growth may be the permanent effect of increased energy efficiency.

We've been telling them that for years, but apparently it took an equities research firm to drag the truth out of them. 

"Macquarie Equities Research said in a client note several days ago that energy efficiency measures really do seem to be having an impact on electricity demand, and the effect is likely to continue. It’s not just theoretical or wishful, the analysts said. “Unfortunately for investors,” the firm said, “utilities expect this demand destruction to continue or even accelerate.”

PJM used "the economy" as an excuse for cancelling the PATH and MAPP projects, but yet they refuse to consider decreased demand in their rush to construct the gold-plated Susquehanna Roseland transmission project.  As well, a hideous, uncoordinated snarl of new wind farms and transmission lines are proposed for the Midwest.  Is there really a market for all this new centralized generation and long distance transmission, or will hundreds of billions of dollars of new infrastructure end up rusting quietly in fields as more and more consumers decrease their usage through energy efficiency and drop off the grid altogether by deploying of their own small scale renewable generators?

The utilities who continue to deny permanent change to consumer demand and stick blindly with their 100-year old business plans of centralized generation and transmission will go belly up.  Those who welcome and embrace change and seek to develop a foothold in a distributed generation, consumers-as-producers future, will thrive.
1 Comment
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    About the Author

    Keryn Newman blogs here at StopPATH WV about energy issues, transmission policy, misguided regulation, our greedy energy companies and their corporate spin.
    In 2008, AEP & Allegheny Energy's PATH joint venture used their transmission line routing etch-a-sketch to draw a 765kV line across the street from her house. Oooops! And the rest is history.

    About
    StopPATH Blog

    StopPATH Blog began as a forum for information and opinion about the PATH transmission project.  The PATH project was abandoned in 2012, however, this blog was not.

    StopPATH Blog continues to bring you energy policy news and opinion from a consumer's point of view.  If it's sometimes snarky and oftentimes irreverent, just remember that the truth isn't pretty.  People come here because they want the truth, instead of the usual dreadful lies this industry continues to tell itself.  If you keep reading, I'll keep writing.


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